Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 9.382310e-05 0.000112 0.000131 0.000153 0.000177 0.000203 0.000232
2024-10-20 6.867605e-05 0.000092 0.000118 0.000149 0.000185 0.000226 0.000273
2024-10-27 5.647620e-05 0.000082 0.000112 0.000149 0.000194 0.000244 0.000305
2024-11-03 4.282000e-05 0.000068 0.000101 0.000142 0.000194 0.000253 0.000327
2024-11-10 3.666376e-05 0.000063 0.000098 0.000144 0.000202 0.000271 0.000358
2024-11-17 2.903039e-05 0.000055 0.000091 0.000140 0.000204 0.000281 0.000379
2024-11-24 2.463817e-05 0.000051 0.000088 0.000141 0.000210 0.000296 0.000405
2024-12-01 2.031921e-05 0.000046 0.000084 0.000140 0.000215 0.000308 0.000429
2024-12-08 1.589051e-05 0.000040 0.000078 0.000135 0.000214 0.000313 0.000443
2024-12-15 1.251931e-05 0.000036 0.000073 0.000132 0.000215 0.000320 0.000461
2024-12-22 1.001666e-05 0.000032 0.000070 0.000130 0.000217 0.000329 0.000479
2024-12-29 8.494244e-06 0.000030 0.000069 0.000132 0.000224 0.000344 0.000506
2025-01-05 6.394212e-06 0.000027 0.000066 0.000132 0.000229 0.000359 0.000535
2025-01-12 4.155116e-06 0.000022 0.000060 0.000127 0.000228 0.000365 0.000554
2025-01-19 3.090639e-06 0.000020 0.000058 0.000128 0.000235 0.000382 0.000586
2025-01-26 1.653066e-06 0.000016 0.000052 0.000121 0.000230 0.000382 0.000597
2025-02-02 1.188955e-06 0.000015 0.000051 0.000123 0.000239 0.000401 0.000632
2025-02-09 5.839483e-07 0.000012 0.000047 0.000119 0.000238 0.000407 0.000649
2025-02-16 3.383162e-07 0.000011 0.000046 0.000120 0.000244 0.000422 0.000679
2025-02-23 1.430766e-07 0.000009 0.000044 0.000119 0.000247 0.000434 0.000704
2025-03-02 2.687242e-08 0.000008 0.000040 0.000115 0.000246 0.000438 0.000719
2025-03-09 4.984654e-10 0.000006 0.000037 0.000112 0.000246 0.000444 0.000737
2025-03-16 NaN 0.000005 0.000035 0.000111 0.000248 0.000453 0.000759